Atlanta Falcons - Fantasy News

Falcons at Eagles Start 'Em / Sit 'Em

by Aaron Bowers

1/10/18

NFL

Atlanta Falcons

Devonta Freeman

After soundly beating the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Wild Card round, the Atlanta Falcons travel to Philadelphia to take on the top-seeded Eagles.

Atlanta looks poised for another NFC Championship Game run as it enters this matchup as a road favorite. Though their offense has sputtered at times, the Falcons defense has stepped up in a big way. Since December 3, Atlanta has played five games against NFC playoff teams. The team has allowed point totals of 14, 17, 23, 10 and 13 in those contests.

Without Carson Wentz, this Philadelphia team is a shell of itself. Though the Eagles still field one of the best defenses in the league and boast a solid running game, the ceiling for this squad is limited by Nick Foles. Philly is looking to gain some valuable playoff experience this year and come back stronger with a chance to win it all next season.

Atlanta Falcons Divisional Round Projected Fantasy Points
Matt Ryan: 16.0 PFP
Julio Jones: 15.5 PFP
Devonta Freeman: 13.5 PFP
Mohamed Sanu: 9.0 PFP
Matt Bryant: 9.0 PFP
Tevin Coleman: 8.5 PFP
Austin Hooper: 6.0 PFP

Philadelphia Eagles Divisional Round Projected Fantasy Points
Zach Ertz: 10.5 PFP
Alshon Jeffery: 9.5 PFP
Jay Ajayi: 9.5 PFP
Nick Foles: 9.5 PFP
Nelson Agholor: 8.0 PFP
Jake Elliott: 8.0 PFP
LeGarrette Blount: 5.5 PFP
Corey Clement: 5.0 PFP
Torrey Smith: 5.0 PFP

Start 'Em: Julio Jones (15.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 13.31

After a frustrating start to the season, Jones has shown why he’s regarded as one of the best receivers in the game over the last few weeks. He has averaged 16.6 Dober Fantasy Points per game since Week 12 and is coming off a game in which he caught nine passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. Jones has four touchdowns in his last four postseason games and now takes aim at a Philadelphia defense with weaknesses in the secondary. The Eagles gave up 27.3 DFP per game to receivers over the course of the season — fifth-worst in the league. Over their last four games, they allowed more than 15.5 DFP to Cooper Kupp, Sterling Shepard, Tavarres King and Amari Cooper — hardly a list of All-Pros. Jones should easily clear 15.5 DFP in this game.

Sit 'Em: Devonta Freeman (13.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 13.16

If there is one thing this Philadelphia defense does well, it’s stopping the run. The Eagles were the only team in the league to allow fewer than 1,000 rushing yards to running backs on the season, and they gave up just six rushing touchdowns to backs all year. Though he’s played well over the last month or so, this is a poor matchup for Freeman, who failed to clear 13.5 DFP in the Wild Card round despite Atlanta leading by double digits. We recommend fading the talented running back for this matchup.

Start 'Em: Jay Ajayi (9.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 8.94

With Wentz on IR, Ajayi represents the best chance for Philadelphia to win this contest and advance to the NFC Championship Game. Before he was rested in Week 17, Ajayi scored more than 9.5 DFP in each of his two games started by Foles. He tallied 30 touches in those contests, compared to 13 for LeGarrette Blount and 8 for Corey Clement. Ajayi is a home-run hitter playing behind an excellent offensive line, and he enters this game on 18 days rest. Against this undersized Atlanta defense, he should find enough room to run to get over his PFP.

Sit 'Em: Nick Foles (9.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 4.83

Our recommendation to fade Foles comes down to the fact that he’s simply not a starter-quality NFL quarterback. Though he was able to seal the win against the Rams and beat the Giants in Week 15, he was absolutely horrible against the Raiders and Cowboys — two of the worst defenses in football. In those contests, he completed less than half of his passes, averaged 4.1 yards per attempt and threw one touchdown against two interceptions in five quarters of work. Atlanta has played stellar pass defense recently, and the Falcons are stocked with superb athletes in the secondary who force a lot of turnovers. We’re steering well clear of Foles at 9.5 PFP.