Buffalo Bills - Fantasy News

Bills at Jaguars Start 'Em / Sit 'Em

by Aaron Bowers

1/3/18

NFL

Buffalo Bills

LeSean McCoy

On Sunday afternoon the Buffalo Bills will travel to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars in the first round of the AFC playoffs. This is the first postseason appearance for the Bills since 1999 and the first for the Jaguars since 2007.

Before the season, Buffalo appeared to be tanking for a high draft pick. The franchise traded Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby without bringing in any notable pieces. However, it defied expectations by playing good defense, running the ball and feasting on a weak schedule.

A perennial bottom-feeder in the AFC, Jacksonville rode a dominant defense and Leonard Fournette to the AFC South championship. Blake Bortles hasn’t been great, but he’s been able to stay under control when playing with a lead, which the Jaguars have done a lot while playing just seven games against teams over .500.

Buffalo Bills Wild Card Round Projected Fantasy Points
Tyrod Taylor: 15.5 PFP
LeSean McCoy: 14.5 PFP
Charles Clay: 7.5 PFP
Stephen Hauschka: 7.5 PFP
Kelvin Benjamin: 7.0 PFP
Deonte Thompson: 6.0 PFP
Zay Jones: 5.5 PFP

Jacksonville Jaguars Wild Card Round Projected Fantasy Points
Blake Bortles: 16.5 PFP
Leonard Fournette: 15.5 PFP
Josh Lambo: 9.0 PFP
Dede Westbrook: 8.5 PFP
Keelan Cole: 8.0 PFP
Jaydon Mickens: 7.0 PFP
Chris Ivory: 5.5 PFP
Marqise Lee: 5.5 PFP
Allen Hurns: 5.5 PFP
Marcedes Lewis: 5.0 PFP
T.J. Yeldon: 5.0 PFP

Start 'Em: Tyrod Taylor (15.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 14.84

Much has been made of the Jacksonville defense, and rightfully so. The unit led the league in nearly every important defensive metric and is littered with superstars at all three levels. However, Taylor is the type of quarterback who can have success against this defense. With only six turnovers in 15 games this season, Taylor is one of the best quarterbacks in the league at taking care of the ball. On top of that, he brings rushing upside that few players at the position can match. It’s easy to imagine him carrying the ball 8-10 times and scoring a touchdown against a team that plays a lot of man coverage with a lot of backs to the quarterback. If he can manage that, he’ll have no trouble getting over his PFP.

Sit 'Em: LeSean McCoy (14.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 14.88

Still one of the best running backs in the NFL in his ninth pro season, the combination of an ankle injury and a bad matchup makes us wary of McCoy this week. His game is built on quick cuts and rapid acceleration. If his ankle injury is anywhere near as bad as it looked when he was carted off the field in Week 17, his effectiveness could be significantly limited. On top of that, Jacksonville has been very tough against rushers since being gashed by the Jets in Week 4. Since that game, the Jaguars have given up an average of 77 yards on the ground per game while allowing only three rushing scores to running backs. Needless to say, it’s hard to picture Shady getting over 14.5 DFP this week.  

Start 'Em: Marqise Lee (5.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 8.56

The forgotten man after all the hype about Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook, it is easy to forget that Lee was the true No. 1 receiver in this offense before going down with an ankle injury in Week 15. Before being shelved, he had scored 5.5 DFP or more in 10 of his last 12 games while averaging 9.83 DFP per contest over that span. Lee is more varied in his route tree than the other players in this receiver corps with the speed to make big plays and the size and strength to go over the middle and make plays in the red zone. This game doesn’t figure to feature many pass attempts, but Lee should get enough work to get over a deflated PFP.

Sit 'Em: Blake Bortles (16.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 15.86

Can a Jaguar change its spots? We certainly don’t think so. After nearly losing his job to Chad Henne in the preseason, Bortles put together the best campaign of his career while playing game manager of the Jacksonville offense. Looking closer, his numbers have been inflated due to short passes taken for long touchdowns and a slate of games against exactly three playoff teams. In contests in which he’s played from behind — such as the last two weeks — he’s looked like typical Bortles, throwing five interceptions since Week 16. Against 2017 playoff teams, he’s averaged 7.09 DFP. Going up against a stout Bills secondary, we recommend fading Bortles on Dober Play Cards.