Buffalo Bills - Fantasy News

NFL Wild Card DFS Picks: Kelvin Benjamin

by Derek Norton

1/5/18

NFL

Buffalo Bills

Kelvin Benjamin

The Buffalo Bills managed to end the NFL’s longest playoff drought thanks to some help from Cincinnati. That’s a great story, but it may come to an abrupt end this weekend.

The Bills draw a matchup with Jacksonville, which has exactly the sort of defensive unit that Kelvin Benjamin and the rest of Buffalo’s offense would like to avoid. The over/under (39.5) is the lowest of Wild Card weekend by 4.5 points.

It would be unwise to expect Benjamin to have a stellar game, but he does have a few things working in his favor.

Why Should I Start Kelvin Benjamin?

Benjamin was the victim of a bogus overturned touchdown against the Patriots in Week 16. Add that to his numbers and he has a solid, if unspectacular, December stat line. He’d be averaging nearly nine Dober points per game with two double-digit performances. We can’t hold the NFL’s poor officiating against him.

The Jaguars were much more susceptible to passing touchdowns in the latter part of the season. They allowed at least one score to a wide receiver in five of their last six games. As Buffalo’s best receiver by far, Benjamin is the one most likely to be next.

As you’d expect, his projection (seven Dober points) is rather low. It’s so low that the Jaguars have allowed receivers to surpass it fairly regularly. At least one pass catcher has gone over seven Dober points against Jacksonville in six of its last seven games. Eight total receivers have accomplished the feat over that period. Again, Benjamin is the most likely Bills receiver to make something happen.

Why Should I Bench Kelvin Benjamin?

Benjamin has done next to nothing with the Bills since he was traded from Carolina. Since his debut in Week 10, he’s averaged six Dober points per game and exceeded his Wild Card projection twice. Some of his struggles have been due to a knee injury, but as far as we know he’s still struggling with it. This is not the matchup to expect him to get right.

First of all, Buffalo has one of the worst passing offenses in the league. The Bills average 177 passing yards per game, which would be the worst in the league if not for Chicago. They’re 27^th in passing touchdowns (16) and 26^th in yards per attempt (6.5). It would be difficult to trust them if they were facing an average pass defense.

As it happens, they’re facing the NFL’s top pass defense. The Jaguars are first in yards per game (170), completion percentage (56.8), yards per attempt (6) and quarterback rating (68.5). They’re second in sacks (55) and interceptions (21). They have shut down passing attacks far more dangerous than Buffalo’s.

Should I Make Kelvin Benjamin a Wild Card Fantasy Starter?

No. This is a weakness-on-strength game, and it won’t be a surprise if the Jaguars render Buffalo’s passing game completely inept. Benjamin is the only receiver the Jags really need to worry about, so we can assume he will get plenty of attention from their top-tier secondary. They could shut him out of the box score just like they did to Corey Davis in Week 17. Pass on Benjamin.

Wild Card Fantasy Prediction: Kelvin Benjamin Under 7 DFPs