Buffalo Bills - Fantasy News

Who to Start: Dion Lewis or LeSean McCoy?

by Mike Rose

11/29/17

NFL

Buffalo Bills

LeSean McCoy

A huge AFC East matchup is set to occur at New Era Field in Orchard Park, NY, on Sunday afternoon when the Buffalo Bills welcome the New England Patriots for the first time since October 30 of last year.

Neither Dion Lewis nor LeSean McCoy factored into that game, but the decks are stacked much differently this time around for the opposing running backs.

Fantasy Matchup: Dion Lewis (10.0 PFP) vs. LeSean McCoy (14.5 PFP)

Lewis has averaged 8.82 Dober Fantasy Points per game, which is significantly less than McCoy in 2017, and enters this matchup as a 4.5-point underdog. This might be a bit different had he been labeled as the No. 1 back on the depth chart for the Pats. Right now, though, he’s a strong No. 2 option.

The Pitt product is coming off of an exceptionally strong showing against the Miami Dolphins in which he ran for 112 yards on only 15 carries. The Pats as a team rushed for a season-high 196 yards against the Fins.

For the year, the No. 27 ranked running back in fantasy football has had a strong showing as part of a crowded Patriots backfield. He’s racked up 498 yards and four touchdowns on 8.82 attempts per game. Now he gets a favorable matchup against a Bills defense that ranks No. 30 against opposing backfields. As a defensive unit, Buffalo has allowed 114 rushing yards per game (No. 21 in the league). It has also allowed an awful 27.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.

Meanwhile, McCoy has been very consistent all season. He’s the No. 7 fantasy running back, totaling 758 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 14.48 Dober Fantasy Points per week. Through Week 12, McCoy is No. 9 in targets and No. 5 in both touches and first downs per game among tailbacks in the NFL.

As sizable underdogs in Week 13, McCoy and the Buffalo passing game could get more opportunities against a Patriots defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing running backs in the league at 53.1 yards per game.

With this stat in mind and the fact that the Patriots defense ranks No. 23 versus opposing ball carriers, McCoy will be the consistent go-to back that he’s been throughout the season. The Bills rank No. 12 in rushing offense while their total offense has been horrendous checking in at No. 26. They will definitely have to rely heavily on their ground attack led by McCoy to get things done against the Pats. New England’s defense has allowed 25.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, so this could be an advantageous scenario for McCoy.

Both rushers are coming off of great Week 12 performances and will look to build off of those efforts. McCoy has played consistently well both at home and on the road so I trust him in this game. The fact that he gets the bulk of the carries out of the backfield makes him that much more attractive in this matchup.

Go with McCoy on your Dober Play Card over Lewis. He’s the 4.5-point favorite for a reason, right?

Week 13 Fantasy Projection: LeSean McCoy (-4.5) vs. Dion Lewis