Buffalo Bills - Fantasy News

Zay Jones 2017 Fantasy Projections

by Adam Markowitz

8/11/17

NFL

Buffalo Bills

Zay Jones

Sometimes you must draft a guy because he's just a darn good football player.

Zay Jones has football in his blood. He owns the NCAA record for receptions in a career and in a single season, and most NFL scouts reached the consensus that he has a high football IQ. Granted, IQ doesn't necessarily directly correlate to fantasy football success, but it usually translates into being a heady football player who is in the right place at the right time.

The Buffalo Bills badly needed a disciplined receiver in this past NFL Draft, and they traded up to get Jones early in the second round. Now, he'll be expected to step in and start immediately and could make himself an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate with enough help from quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

Why Zay Jones Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Keeper

We'll admit it: We have a bit of a man crush on Jones. His dad is Super Bowl-winning linebacker Robert Jones, while his uncle is Jeff Blake. He flat out knows how to run routes and how to get into the soft spots of opposing defenses. It's not just that Jones played his college ball at East Carolina and was able to pick apart some lousy defenses in a spread offense. He was a standout at the Senior Bowl, then shocked most by running a speedy 4.45 40-yard dash at the Combine. The dude can play ball with the big boys.

Taylor ranked No. 22 in the NFL last season in total air yards–yards in which the ball was actually in the air per pass attempt. He only averaged 6.9 yards per throw in spite of the fact that he had four passes of at least 60 yards on the campaign. He's a dinker and a dunker, and that should play incredibly well with Jones' game—especially in our Dober scoring system, which awards 0.5-point per reception.

It's not quite as good as a full-blown PPR scoring system, but Jones should still immediately become the top option for receptions on this team. Charles Clay had that distinction last year with 57 grabs, though a lot of that was because Sammy Watkins was hurt for half the year. Watkins is now gone after being traded to LA.

Let's also remember that Jones is often going to be compared to Corey Davis and Mike Williams, two of the wide receivers picked before him in the Draft. Early in the season, the assumption will be that Davis and Williams should have the better days at the office. We're don't think that's the case. If we're right, we have a slew of value on our side backing what we view as the top rookie receiver in this incoming class.

Why Zay Jones Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Dud

The worst thing to say about Jones is that the Bills really don't have a sturdy quarterback. For our money, Taylor is fine as a signal caller, but the brass in Orchard Park refuses to endorse him as the long-term option under center. Could that give way to Nathan Peterman at some point this year, especially if losses start to mount? Maybe. If so, Jones' value—as well as the value for everyone else in this offense—will go away.

There's also the question regarding how many receptions Jones is going to have to make in order to be impactful in Dober NFL matchups. Five or six is a good day for most receivers, but if that only totals up to 40 yards, you're talking about being stuck around 6-7 Dober Fantasy Points.

Even though Jones is fairly large at 6-foot-2 and 201 pounds, he's a little lanky and probably won't fare well in the red zone. Clay is a far better targets in tight spaces, and LeSean McCoy will have his share of the receptions out of the backfield, too. The newly acquired Jordan Matthews will probably have his say, too.

The good news on Jones is that the floor is probably higher than it is for any other incoming rookie in 2017. The bad news is that his ceiling is about as low as it gets, too.