Cincinnati Bengals - Fantasy News

Jeremy Hill 2017 Fantasy Projections

by Derek Norton

8/13/17

NFL

Cincinnati Bengals

Jeremy Hill

After Jeremy Hill’s great rookie season in 2014, he garnered some legitimate buzz as a first or second-round fantasy draft pick the following season.

But Hill hasn’t managed to recapture his early career magic and has become more of a FLEX play.

After Cincinnati’s offseason moves, things could only get worse for Hill in 2017.

Why Jeremy Hill Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Stud

The former LSU star has had a very consistent role in the Bengals’ offense throughout his career. He received 222 carries in his first season, 223 in his second and 222 in his third. Should this trend continue, Hill will find himself among the top 20 running backs in touches per game. He had the 18^th most touches among running backs in 2016.

The Bengals have a favorable schedule for running backs. They’ll get two games each against the Browns and Steelers, who were among the worst defenses against running backs last year. The Bills, Colts and Bears also gave up a ton of fantasy points to backs. They have only three games against teams who finished in the top 10 against backs in 2016 (Baltimore twice and Jacksonville).

Hill has scored at least nine touchdowns in each of his three seasons. He also has seven multi-score games over that stretch. He’s typically a boom-or-bust type of player, but his blow-up games are more frequent than other running backs at his level. He’ll be a solid gamble in good matchups.

Why Jeremy Hill Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Dud

There isn’t a clear leader in Cincinnati’s backfield. Hill and Giovani Bernard have managed to coexist to some degree, but then the Bengals threw Joe Mixon in as well. Mixon was the 48^th pick in the draft, but he fell because of character concerns. It’s possible he would’ve been worthy of a first-round pick based on talent alone.

Since Mixon is a rookie, we don’t really have any indication of how he’ll be used. That means just about everything is on the table, including Mixon taking a significant share of Hill’s carries.

Hill can’t really afford to cede carries or playing time. As mentioned, the number of carries he gets is one of his main selling points. As for playing time, Hill played 443 snaps in 2016. That tied him for 29^th among running backs. He was also 29^th in snap percentage, excluding running backs who played fewer than 12 games. Though Hill finished 18^th in touches, it’s worth noting Bernard missed six games.

One of the main reasons why people fell in love with Hill after his rookie season was his 5.1 yards per carry. He went on to average 3.6 in 2015 and 3.8 in 2016. He failed to reach 1,000 yards in either season, too. He ranked 10^th in Dober Fantasy Points in his rookie season but fell to 16^th in 2015 and 22^nd in 2016.

Hill hasn’t shown much as a receiving running back. He averages just 21 receptions per season. That would have placed him 38^th among running backs in 2016. Forty-six running backs got more targets. He has only scored one receiving touchdown in his career, so it’s unlikely he’ll be able to take advantage of Dober’s 0.5 PPR scoring.