Jacksonville Jaguars - Fantasy News

Who to Start: Blake Bortles or Tom Brady?

by Mike Rose

1/18/18

NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars

Blake Bortles

An AFC playoff matchup that not many envisioned is set to occur in Foxboro on Sunday when the New England Patriots welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars into Gillette Stadium for the AFC Championship Game with a trip to the Super Bowl hanging in the balance.

Arguably the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady, will be going up against Jaguars passer Blake Bortles as both try to lead their teams to the Big Game.

Each quarterback is coming off impressive victories in the Divisional round after Bortles defeated Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in a 45-42 shootout, while Brady made quick work of Marcus Mariota and the Titans 35-14.

Fantasy Matchup: Blake Bortles (15.0 PFP) vs. Tom Brady (19.5 PFP)

Some might say Bortles hasn’t been the main reason for his team’s overall success with the defense ranked No. 1 in the league. Jacksonville is no doubt where it is currently because of its top unit. However, when the Steelers put up 42 against the Jaguars last week, Bortles had to make some big plays when necessary.

On the season, the UCF product averaged 15.86 Dober Fantasy Points, which were about three fewer points per week than Brady, so he enters this matchup as a 4.5-point underdog. He threw for 3,687 yards with a 21-to-13 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 60 percent of his passes during the regular season. Let’s fast forward to the playoffs.

In the two games against Buffalo and Pittsburgh, he’s thrown for 301 yards with two touchdowns and has yet to be picked off while fumbling three times. He’s completed only 53 percent of his attempts and has only averaged 150.5 passing yards, which isn’t very good either.

Against Pittsburgh, he completed 14 of 26 passes for 214 yards and one touchdown. While those aren’t the greatest of stats, he could very well log some standout numbers on Sunday when he opposes a Patriots defense ranked No. 30 in passing yards allowed (251.2) and No. 29 in total yards per game (366.0).

New England does, however, rank an impressive No. 5 in points allowed per game (18.5), but Pittsburgh was No. 7 in that department and the Jags just tore them up. With the Jacksonville quarterback’s ability to throw the ball against a weak Pats defense combined with his mobility, I like this matchup for Bortles.

Then you have Brady, who just continues to do Brady-like things. Against the Titans in the Divisional round, he was brilliant. He threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns and tallied yet another 100-plus passer rating. That was game No. 9 in which he went over that plateau on the season, including the playoffs.

Brady threw for an outstanding 4,577 yards with a brilliant 32-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the regular season. However, Brady hasn’t seen a defense the caliber or quality of what Jacksonville brings to the table on a weekly basis. In fact, the best defense Brady saw all season was that of the Chargers, who ranked No. 3 against both the pass and in points allowed. The Jaguars defense is No. 1 against the pass (169.9 yards) and No. 2 in total points allowed (16.8) per game. Also, a certain someone named Tom Coughlin is the Executive Vice President of Football Operations for the Jags. The last time Brady faced a Coughlin team, we all know what happened.

This is going to be a great game and closer than most expect. I’m still going to go with Brady in this Dober Fantasy matchup and for my Dober Play Card—and so should you. But as far as which team wins this game, the Jaguars could pull off the upset and play in the Super Bowl.

AFC Championship Fantasy Matchup: Tom Brady (-4.5) vs. Blake Bortles