Kansas City Chiefs - Fantasy News

Patrick Mahomes 2017 Fantasy Projections

by Adam Markowitz

8/11/17

NFL

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

Since finishing 2-14 in 2012, the Kansas City Chiefs have ended each NFL season with a winning record four consecutive times. That said, they've done so with Alex Smith at quarterback, and that has largely been their downfall when the games have mattered in the postseason.

Smith is still under contract for a couple more years and is absolutely going to be the starting quarterback in KC in 2017. But it's apparent that the front office doesn't believe he can lead the team to a Super Bowl.

Enter: Patrick Mahomes II.

The Texas Tech product shot up draft boards from the end of the college football season through the NFL Draft, and he ended up being selected No. 10 overall. The Chiefs gave up a trove of picks to move up to take him. Mahomes probably won't find himself on the field much this year, but if he does get forced into action, he becomes a viable fantasy football option worth analyzing.

Why Patrick Mahomes Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Keeper

The one thing head coach Andy Reid has always been able to do is groom a quarterback. Reid comes off as a conservative guy, but he was also the driving force behind Brett Favre in Green Bay as well as Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick in Philadelphia. Mahomes is a quintessential gunslinger. The risks he take will surely end in interceptions quite often at this level if he isn't tamed, but at -2 Dober Fantasy Points per interception in our Dober NFL matchups, that isn't the end of the world.

Though the Chiefs haven't run any sort of risky offense, there are definitely some game-breakers who can take one-yard screens and turn them into 60-yard touchdowns in a hurry. Tyreek Hill is probably going to get the ball in his hands a lot more often in his sophomore season, and he's the type of guy who can change the whole landscape of a fantasy football matchup in a hurry.

Why Patrick Mahomes Will Be A 2017 Fantasy Football Dud

Two words: Johnny. Manziel.

By all accounts, Mahomes isn't a head case like Johnny Football was, but on the field, he's largely the same type of player. Mahomes loves to force the football into tight spots and isn't afraid to try to run around a bit inside and outside the pocket to try to make a big play happen. That might work at Texas Tech against Big XII defenses, but it isn't working in the NFL.

Sure, Manziel had a few brilliant moments in the pros. But in his NFL career, his numbers were underwhelming. The former Heisman Trophy winner started six games in his final year in the league in 2015, and the results were all over the place.

In a game in which he went 13-of-32 passing for 136 yards and an interception, he was worth 15.24 DFPs because of his 108 rushing yards. He also had a game in which he threw for 372 yards and posted 19.88 DFPs. His final average was just 16.34 DFPs per contest. It's not a bad number, but it's also worth remembering that Manziel is a lot faster than Mahomes, and these stats are from the former Cleveland signal caller’s second year in the league, not his first. Mahomes is still a rookie, and he'll never come close to 100 rushing yards in a game.

There's a reason why Mahomes was considered a project pick and a big reach for the Chiefs. Most believe he isn't going to be ready to play in his first year in the NFL, and that's probably a good sign that he shouldn't be considered in your Dober NFL matchups either.