Kansas City Chiefs - Fantasy News

Should I Start Alex Smith in Week 9?

by Derek Norton

11/2/17

NFL

Kansas City Chiefs

Alex Smith

After 12 years of oscillating between being a backup, a Pro Bowler, and everything in between, Kansas City’s Alex Smith is having what may end up being the best season of his career. He’s averaging 21.7 Dober Fantasy Points per game and trails only Tom Brady in passing yards.

But the Utah product is coming off of his lowest Dober output of the year (13.38) in Monday night’s win over the Denver Broncos. He’ll try to bounce back when the Chiefs travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys.

Why Should I Start Alex Smith?

Smith has been much better on the road this season. He’s averaging 248 yards per game and one touchdown in home games compared to 297 yards and three scores on the road. His Dober totals reflect that, as his home average is 18 points and his road average is 25.4. He surpassed his Week 9 projection (17) in three of four games as a visitor.

Though Smith has only two career starts against the Cowboys, he performed well in both of them. He threw two touchdowns in each game and was an interception away from covering his Week 9 Dober spread twice. This is his first career start in Dallas, though.

Smith has the highest quarterback rating in the league (115.4) while the Cowboys are 23^rd in quarterback rating allowed (94.5). The ‘Boys are also tied for 27^th in interceptions with three. Smith has still not thrown a pick, and it’s very unlikely the Cowboys will force turnovers, meaning those using Smith shouldn’t have to worry about negative points due to interceptions.

The Cowboys are tied for 19^th in touchdown passes allowed with 12. That’s not terrible, but it’s worse considering their competition. Smith will be the first quarterback they’ve faced that’s currently in the top five in touchdowns. The only passers they’ve faced in the top 10 were Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins, who are tied for seventh. They also let the recently benched Trevor Siemian throw four touchdowns against them. Smith should perform better than most quarterbacks have against Dallas.

Why Should I Bench Alex Smith?

Though they haven’t played the greatest quarterbacks, there’s no denying the Cowboys have been largely successful against opposing passers. Only one quarterback (Carson Palmer) has thrown for over 300 yards and they’ve held three quarterbacks (Eli Manning, C.J. Beathard and Kirk Cousins) to one or no touchdowns.

One of Smith’s best weapons is Travis Kelce, but he could be in for a rough outing against the Cowboys. Virgil Greene is the only tight end to notch a touchdown against Dallas, and Martellus Bennett’s 53 yards are the most allowed by the Cowboys from the position. If Dallas can shut Kelce down, Smith will be without arguably his best receiver.  

Though Smith’s overall numbers are good, he has lacked consistency. He averages 21.7 Dober points per game, but he has failed to reach 17 Dober points four times. He probably won’t have a terrible game, but a 200-yard, one-touchdown game is definitely in play.

Should I Make Alex Smith a Week 9 Fantasy Starter?

Yes. Smith has a good matchup against the Cowboys considering his strengths against their weaknesses. It’s a bit worrisome that the Chiefs have to travel on a short week, but the Cowboys haven’t done as well against better quarterbacks. Expect an efficient, mistake-free performance that will make Smith a good Dober pick.

Week 9 Fantasy Prediction: Alex Smith Over 17 DFPs