Kansas City Chiefs - Fantasy News

Should I Start Patrick Mahomes in Week 17?

by Derek Norton

12/30/17

NFL

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

The calls for Patrick Mahomes have been heard since the Kansas City Chiefs traded up to pick him No. 10 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft. Alex Smith managed to hold him off, but now the Chiefs find themselves in a situation in which they can keep Smith as the starter but give Mahomes some work.

Kansas City is locked into the AFC’s fourth seed regardless of Sunday’s outcome, so Smith will get the day off. Mahomes won’t have the easiest of debuts in a trip to Denver, though.

Why Should I Start Patrick Mahomes?

As Andy Reid points out, Mahomes’ first start will come in a low-pressure situation. He won’t need to take any unnecessary risks and can be more relaxed in a meaningless game. It could be something like a preseason contest, where Mahomes was mostly successful back in August. He exceeded his Week 17 projection (10.5) twice even though he never played a full game. Mahomes likely isn’t coming off the field unless he gets hurt, putting him in a position to duplicate his preseason success.

One area in which Mahomes was successful at Texas Tech was scoring on the ground. He had 22 total rushing touchdowns in his two years as a full-time starter. A rushing score on Sunday would get him more than halfway to his projection.

Speaking of his projection, it’s low enough that even the Broncos tend to allow opposing quarterbacks to surpass it. Only three starting signal callers (Eli Manning, Derek Carr and Josh McCown) failed to score more than 10.5 Dober points against the Broncos. Carr and McCown get something of a pass since both left their respective games early with an injury. Mahomes won’t need a particularly outstanding stat line to be worth using.

Why Should I Bench Patrick Mahomes?

There’s obviously going to be some risk in using Mahomes since he has never even taken a snap in a real NFL game. There’s no telling how he’ll play and his status as an early draft pick doesn’t guarantee anything. Look no further than how rookie receivers drafted in the first round (Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross) compare to second-rounder JuJu Smith-Schuster and third-rounder Cooper Kupp. Mahomes could play just as poorly as Manning did in Denver.

Since the game is meaningless, there’s no telling who else the Chiefs will sit in addition to Smith. Playmakers like Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill could see reduced snaps. And that’s if the Chiefs decide to activate them all. He can’t be expected to play very well surrounded by other backups.

That’s especially true considering the matchup. The Broncos have given up the fourth-fewest passing yards (196 yards per game) and have only allowed one rushing touchdown to an opposing quarterback. They also give up just 7.9 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks, which is the third-fewest in the league.

Should I Make Patrick Mahomes a Week 17 Fantasy Starter?

Yes. Mahomes has a low projection and he’s going to want to show what he’s got. He didn’t have a problem playing with backups in the preseason, so perhaps that won’t be as big of a deal. It might not be pretty, but Mahomes just barely goes over his projection this week.

Week 17 Fantasy Prediction: Patrick Mahomes Over 10.5 DFPs