Kansas City Chiefs - Fantasy News

Who to Start: Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce?

by Adam Markowitz

9/3/17

NFL

Kansas City Chiefs

Rob Gronkowski

If not for the final game that Rob Gronkowski played last season in which he got injured, he and Travis Kelce would have been the No. 1 and No. 2 tight ends, respectively, in Dober Fantasy Games by points per game average. Now, the two are going to be on the field against each other in the first game of the 2017 NFL season when the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs face off in Foxboro.

Fantasy Matchup: Rob Gronkowski (13.0 PFP) vs. Travis Kelce (11.0 PFP)

Gronk is spotting Kelce a couple fantasy points in this matchup, and that could end up being relatively crucial by the end of the night should the two put up comparable numbers.

The case for Gronkowski is simple: He's the most dominant tight end and one of the most explosive pass catchers in general in the NFL today. And when he's healthy, he's always a threat to put up huge numbers. If you take away the game against the Jets in which Gronkowski was injured early on, he averaged 77 receiving yards per contest and scored three touchdowns. With Julian Edelman on the sidelines for the year with a torn ACL, Gronk figures to become Tom Brady's newest favorite weapon all over the field. So the opportunity is there for him to put up historically good numbers out of the tight end spot should he stay healthy.

The Chiefs, though, had one of the best defenses in the NFL against tight ends in 2016. Opposing players at the position averaged just 4.0 receptions and 46.1 yards per game while scoring a total of just four touchdowns. Eric Berry had a lot to do with that at the safety spot, though the main concern really is the speed of the players at the second level. Derrick Johnson is one of the best middle linebackers in the NFL, particularly in coverage.

Kelce is going to have his work cut out for him in Week 1 of the new campaign. The Patriots will have had an entire offseason to figure out how to slow him down, and rare is the team that is able to use its best weapons effectively against Bill Belichick. The last legitimate No. 1 player on a team to score a touchdown against the Patriots was Brandon Marshall for the Jets, and that came way back in November of last season.

Still, Kelce had some massive games last season. From Week 8 through Week 16, he averaged 93 yards per game and had six 100-plus yard performances in nine outings.

It's no great surprise that the Chiefs have one of the weakest receiving corps in the NFL, and the only way we can see Kelce really getting loose is if there is too much attention paid to Tyreek Hill. Chris Conley and the rest of these KC receivers don't really scare us at all, and they won't scare the Patriots either. If Conley is the reason why the Chiefs find the end zone, Belichick isn't going to be overly concerned.

That's why we just flat out can't play Kelce, even as a relatively big underdog in this comparable matchup. For as public-minded as it is to play Gronkowski against anyone in the NFL, it just makes too much sense to avoid. Gronk has a far greater chance of finding the end zone in this one, and if he does, Kelce is going to have a long, uphill climb to get back in this matchup.

Week 1 Fantasy Projection: Rob Gronkowski (-2) vs. Travis Kelce