Miami Dolphins - Fantasy News

Patriots at Dolphins Start 'Em / Sit 'Em

by Aaron Bowers

12/4/17

NFL

Miami Dolphins

DeVante Parker

For the second time in three weeks, the New England Patriots will play the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots have their sights set on a first-round bye while the Dolphins are just playing out the string of another lost season.

After a sluggish start to the year, the Patriots have righted the ship to win their last eight games and establish the best record in the AFC at 10-2. The New England offense has been every bit as great as advertised, and the once-maligned defense has given up just 11.8 points per game during their win streak.

Unfortunately for NFL fans, advertising sponsors and network executives alike, this is the fourth nationally televised game Miami has played in the last seven weeks. The Fins were outscored 112-45 in the first three and lost to these Patriots 35-17 when they played two weeks ago.

We’ve identified players to target and fade on Dober Play Cards for this otherwise uninspiring Monday Night Football matchup.

New England Patriots Week 14 Projected Fantasy Points
Tom Brady: 21.5 PFP
Brandin Cooks: 13.5 PFP
Rex Burkhead: 11.0 PFP
Stephen Gostkowski: 10.0 PFP
Dion Lewis: 10.0 PFP
Danny Amendola: 8.5 PFP
James White: 7.5 PFP

Miami Dolphins Week 14 Projected Fantasy Points
Jay Cutler: 12.0 PFP
Jarvis Landry: 11.0 PFP
Kenny Stills: 10.0 PFP
Kenyan Drake: 9.0 PFP
DaVante Parker: 8.5 PFP
Julius Thomas: 7.0 PFP
Cody Parkey: 6.0 PFP

Start 'Em: Rex Burkhead (11.0 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 11.6

If there is one thing we’ve learned about the Patriots over the years, it’s that you can’t trust their running backs for consistent fantasy production. However, since returning from injury in Week 8, Burkhead leads all Patriots running backs in snaps, receptions and touchdowns and is second in touches and yards over that span. With Mike Gillislee a healthy scratch in each of the last four games, Burkhead has taken over at the goal line and in short-yardage situations. With Rob Gronkowski suspended for this game, there will be more red zone opportunities available. Burkhead is a strong candidate for those looks which will help him get over his PFP.

Sit 'Em: Tom Brady (21.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 20.55

Fading the G.O.A.T. is nearly as dangerous as targeting a New England running back, but we’re feeling bold with our predictions this week. In his last five games in Miami, Tom Brady has a 2-3 record and has averaged just 15.97 DFP per game. Additionally, against these same Dolphins at home two weeks ago, Brady put up just 20.68 DFP. Already without Julian Edelman, Brady will now have to get by without Gronk, his red zone security blanket. This doesn’t set up to be the blow-up spot that fantasy players would need in order for Brady to get over his PFP.

Start 'Em: Julius Thomas (7.0 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 6.06

In his last five games, Julius Thomas has really come alive as an important part of the Miami offense. In that span, Thomas has averaged four receptions and 9.48 DFP per game after averaging just 2.4 receptions and 3.16 DFP over the first seven games of the year. The turnaround of the New England defense has occurred with the team playing a ton of two-deep zone coverage, the perfect defense to be exploited by tight ends. Indeed, Thomas had one of his best games of the season two weeks ago in New England when he caught five passes for 52 yards. Expect him to be heavily involved in the game plan again and get over a very favorable PFP.

Sit 'Em: DeVante Parker (8.5 PFP)
Dober Fantasy Points Per Game: 7.27

Early in the season, people were talking about DeVante Parker as being one of the breakout receivers of the year. However, after eclipsing 8.5 DFP in each of his first five games, Parker has just 6.6 DFP in his last three games combined. He’s seemingly fallen behind Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills in the pecking order among receivers, and Miami has leaned on its suddenly more successful running game since the Jay Ajayi trade. On top of that, Parker has been either exceptionally bad or extremely unlucky lately as he’s been the target of five interceptions during this rough three-game stretch. Good players like Parker don’t stay down for long, but we’re looking to fade him at such a high PFP until he shows signs of a bounce-back.