New England Patriots - Fantasy News

Who To Start: Marcus Mariota or Tom Brady

by Mike Rose

1/11/18

NFL

New England Patriots

Tom Brady

The Tennessee Titans are coming off a huge 18-point come-from-behind victory over the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card round of the AFC playoffs. Their reward? A trip to Foxboro, where the New England Patriots will welcome them for the first time since the two hooked up in the playoffs back in 2004.

The Patriots won that encounter to advance to the AFC Championship Game, and I don’t see that result changing this time around.

Both quarterbacks will be on display as Marcus Mariota (15.5 PFP) goes toe to toe with the one and only Tom Brady (21.0 PFP).

Fantasy Matchup: Marcus Mariota (15.5 PFP) vs. Tom Brady (21.0 PFP)

It’s projected to be about 42 degrees at kickoff, which is unseasonably warm for Foxboro at this time of year, so the weather likely won’t be an issue for either quarterback throughout this Dober matchup.

Mariota is coming off the game of his life. He played so well, particularly in the second half, that he even caught his own touchdown pass on a wild bounce play. He went for a fantastic 25.9 Dober Fantasy Points in the comeback win. It was his highest total since Week 5 of the regular season against Green Bay.

The Oregon product has averaged 14.17 Dober Fantasy Points per game this season, which is over four points less per week than Brady, so he enters this divisional round matchup as a 5.5-point underdog. This spread comes as a bit of a surprise considering the Patriots defense ranks No. 29 in total yards allowed (366) and No. 30 in passing yards allowed (251.2). If Mariota can distribute the football to his receivers, he should be able to give the New England secondary some fits.

During the regular season, Mariota threw for 3,232 yards with an awful 13-to-15 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He did, however, add five rushing touchdowns. The Patriots defense ranks No. 20 versus the run, so look for Mariota to use his feet as another weapon in the running game to complement Tennessee’s version of Beast Mode, Derrick Henry.

Mariota leads a Titans offense that ranked No. 23 in both total yards per game (314) and passing yards per game (199.4) during the regular season. If the Titans play their style, they could make things interesting. However, the Patriots aren’t the Chiefs.

Since 2006, New England leads the NFL in best record after a bye week at 16-4. Let’s see how that transitions to this weekend after not having to play in the Wild Card round. Brady’s all-time playoff record is 25-9, and those nine losses are fourth-most all-time by a quarterback in the playoffs.

Brady had an MVP-caliber season as he hurled the pigskin for 4,577 yards with an outstanding 32-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also had eight games in which he played to a quarterback rating over 100, finishing the season with a rating of 102.8.

But during his last six games, the future Hall of Famer had at least one turnover in five of those contests. He also had a quarterback rating of 87.6 or lower in four of his last five. That begs the question, did Brady start to get tired as the season was winding down?

Maybe the bye week will have done him some good. He’ll also get to oppose a Tennessee defense that ranks No. 25 in passing yards allowed (239.2) and No. 17 in points allowed per game (22.2).

Brady doesn’t lose in the divisional round of the playoffs. And if he does, it’s extremely rare. Go with Brady for your Dober Play Cards this week against Mariota.

AFC Divisional Round Fantasy Matchup: Tom Brady (-5.5) vs. Marcus Mariota