Oakland Raiders - Fantasy News

Should I Start Amari Cooper in Week 7?

by Derek Norton

10/17/17

NFL

Oakland Raiders

Amari Cooper

No NFL player has tested the patience of Dober players (or fantasy players in general) quite like Oakland’s Amari Cooper.

Instead of having the common courtesy of not playing so we can all ignore him, Cooper continues to suit up and find new ways to disappoint every person who has relied on him in any format. Naturally, here we are again. Is this the week people won’t feel stupid for using the former Alabama standout?

There are certainly better bounce-back circumstances than a home game on Thursday Night Football against the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs.

Why Should I Start Amari Cooper?

One of the few stats Cooper has going in his favor is red zone targets. He has six looks inside the opposing 20-yard line (tied for ninth) and five inside the opposing 10-yard line (tied for second). He’s getting just about as many opportunities to score as any other wide receiver. As such, he could snap out of his funk at any time.

Cooper also has the hope for positive regression on his side. He is one of three receivers (Odell Beckham and Marques Colston) to have at least 70 catches and 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons. It’s unlikely Cooper is suddenly a terrible football player. For him to reach his averages over those two seasons (77.5 receptions and 1,111.5 yards), he would need to be very good over his final 10 games. Specifically, he would have to average six receptions for 96.5 yards. As a matter of statistical probability, his lines could look more like that going forward.

Despite Kansas City’s 5-1 record, opposing wide receivers are going off on them. The Chiefs have given up 10 touchdowns to the position, which is more than any other team in the league. They’re seventh in yards allowed to wide receivers (168.4) and have allowed at least one receiver to pick up 70 yards in five of six games. The one time they didn’t, they gave up three touchdowns to DeAndre Hopkins and two to Will Fuller. They’ve given up at least 14 Dober points to a receiver in every game this year.

Why Should I Bench Amari Cooper?

Let’s get the horrendous numbers out of the way first. Cooper is averaging 4.93 Dober points per game. In other words, he’s averaging three receptions and 24 yards per week with only one touchdown. He has failed to eclipse 10 yards three times. Even the positive red zone numbers above are deceptive. He only managed to convert one of his chances, four of which came in Week 1. Three of them were back-to-back-to-back on the same drive. If that weren’t enough, only three players (Beckham, Jonathan Stewart and Marqise Lee) have more drops than Cooper.

But wait, there’s more! Even in Cooper’s back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons, he didn’t do very well against the Chiefs. In four games against them, he’s averaging five receptions for 62 yards and has not scored. He had one big game (10 receptions for 129 yards in Week 6 of 2016) but was effectively shut down in the other three.

The Oakland offense has struggled in its two Thursday night games since Cooper joined the team. In a 23-20 home win over the Chargers in overtime in 2015, Derek Carr threw for 204 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Cooper caught two passes for 10 yards. In 2016, the Chiefs beat the Raiders 21-13 in Kansas City. Carr completed 17 of 41 passes for 117 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Cooper caught five passes for 29 yards. It was the last time Oakland and Kansas City met.

Should I Make Amari Cooper a Week 7 Fantasy Starter?

Yes. If you can bear it, that is. Anyone would be forgiven for wanting to see Cooper prove it first, but he wouldn’t need a particularly good game to surpass his projection of eight Dober points. Wide receivers are dominating Kansas City left and right, and they could still be vulnerable after having to travel on a short week. Feel free to use Cooper, but don’t do it with confidence.

Week 7 Fantasy Prediction: Amari Cooper Over 8 DFPs