Philadelphia Eagles - Fantasy News

Super Bowl 52 DFS Picks: Nelson Agholor

by Derek Norton

1/26/18

NFL

Philadelphia Eagles

Nelson Agholor

Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson obviously deserves plenty of credit for all of the decisions that led to the Eagles making it to the Super Bowl. But one of his most impressive moves was moving Nelson Agholor into the slot, thereby resurrecting the career of the former first-round bust from Southern California.

Though Agholor doesn’t have the name value of guys like Alshon Jeffery, Jay Ajayi or Zach Ertz, he could be Philadelphia’s secret weapon in the Super Bowl.

Why Should I Start Nelson Agholor?

Agholor was one of the most efficient red zone receivers in the league this year. His 13 receptions inside the 20 tied him for third among receivers. His 72.2 percent catch rate in the red zone ranked second among receivers with more than 15 targets inside the 20. He’ll be a safe option when the Eagles get close to the goal line.

The Patriots were one of the best matchups for wide receivers in the regular season. Opposing pass catchers picked up 2,755 yards against them, which was third-most in the league behind Tampa Bay and Kansas City. They also gave up the fifth-most receptions (204) and were tied for the 10^th-most touchdowns (15). Each of Philadelphia’s receivers could break out.

What makes Agholor potentially the most attractive option is how the Patriots have performed against slot receivers. New England allowed them to exceed Agholor’s Super Bowl projection (8.5) on seven occasions: to Bruce Ellington, Travis Benjamin, Mohamed Sanu, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Eli Rogers and Jarvis Landry twice. Those receivers averaged 5.4 receptions for 62.3 yards with five total touchdowns. Even without the score, that stat line would be enough for Agholor to go over.

Why Should I Bench Nelson Agholor?

Agholor has not had much success since Nick Foles took over. The USC product went over 8.5 Dober points in Foles’ first start when he caught one of the quarterback’s four touchdown passes. In the four games since, he’s averaging just 5.53 Dober points per game.

His targets have fallen off as well. Agholor led the team in targets in Foles’ three regular season starts, but that hasn’t been the case in the playoffs. He was sixth on the team with four against Atlanta and tied for third with four against Minnesota. Perhaps the success Philadelphia had throwing deep against Minnesota will lead them to go for an encore against New England, which would limit Agholor’s upside.

The Patriots have also done a good job of keeping their opponents out of the end zone lately. They’ve allowed no more than 20 points in a game since Week 5, though it’s happened three times. Four of their opponents couldn’t get out of single digits. There likely won’t be many touchdowns to go around for the Eagles.

Should I Make Nelson Agholor a Super Bowl Fantasy Starter?

Yes. Though Agholor hasn’t gotten much run in the postseason, he can exploit an area of weakness for the Patriots. He also isn’t likely to draw the same type of attention as Philadelphia’s other offensive weapons. He could easily be a big part of Philadelphia’s offense in the first half, at least until the Patriots make halftime adjustments. He’s arguably the best value in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Fantasy Prediction: Nelson Agholor Over 8.5 DFPs