Pittsburgh Steelers - Fantasy News

NFL Playoffs DFS Picks: Antonio Brown

by Derek Norton

1/12/18

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers

Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown missed Pittsburgh’s final two regular season games with a calf injury, but that didn’t stop him from leading the league in receiving yards. His 109.5 yards per game were 17.6 more than second-place holder DeAndre Hopkins.

After three weeks off, Brown and the Steelers draw a matchup with a Jaguars team that beat them 30-9 in Week 5.

Why Should I Start Antonio Brown?

Brown’s projection (18 Dober points) is lower than his season average of 19.2. Before suffering his calf injury against the Patriots, he exceeded his projection in four straight games with an average of 31.3 Dober points per contest. That span included his three highest-scoring efforts of the season, all of which came at home. No receiver has a higher ceiling than Brown.

Despite getting blown out in their first meeting, Brown still had a big game. He scored 21.7 Dober points and had the best performance any receiver has had against Jacksonville. He had 10 receptions (Hopkins had the second-most with seven) and 157 yards (Tyler Lockett had the second-most with 90). Brown is one of the few players who is almost completely matchup-proof.

Though he hasn’t played since Week 15, he is practicing in full and apparently looks like he didn’t miss any time. Medical reporters also called his injury the “good kind” of calf injury and expect him to be at or near 100 percent.

Why Should I Bench Antonio Brown?

On the other hand, all of the injury talk could mean nothing. Of course the Steelers are going to say he looks amazing. They have no reason to say anything else. The medical analysis is speculation and there’s risk of re-injury, especially in cold weather. As of right now, Sunday forecasts are calling for a high of 17 degrees and a low of three. Brown isn’t out of the woods yet.

Despite Brown’s early-season success, the Jaguars still have the NFL’s top pass defense. They finished the regular season first in yards per game (170), completion percentage (56.8), yards per attempt (6) and quarterback rating (68.5). They were second in sacks (55) and interceptions (21). In their first meeting, they intercepted Ben Roethlisberger five times. In their first playoff game against the Bills, they held Buffalo’s receivers to five receptions for 52 yards. If Brown is hobbled at all, they could shut him down as well.

Brown has a decent playoff history, but not one that would suggest he will exceed this week’s projection. In nine career playoff games, he surpassed 18 Dober points just once. He also has just two career postseason receiving touchdowns, both coming in last season’s Wild Card game against the Dolphins. Factor in the rust and the tough matchup and this doesn’t seem likely to be one of his best playoff performances.

Should I Make Antonio Brown a Divisional Fantasy Starter?

No. Brown would absolutely be worth using if we could be assured of his health, but we won’t know that for sure until the game starts. He’d also be worth using if he weren’t facing the most difficult wide receiver matchup in the league. But those together, combined with a high projection that he rarely exceeds in the playoffs, make him too risky this week.

Divisional Fantasy Prediction: Antonio Brown Under 18 DFPs