Seattle Seahawks - Fantasy News

Should I Start Jimmy Graham in Week 11?

by Derek Norton

11/16/17

NFL

Seattle Seahawks

Jimmy Graham

The Seattle Seahawks are in midst of an 11-day break between their Week 10 Thursday Night Football game and Week 11 Monday Night Football showdown. Though they escaped Arizona with a victory, more than a few key players got banged up.

Jimmy Graham scored twice and made it through unscathed, though at least one of Seattle’s injuries could affect him. He’s arguably the hottest tight end in the league right now, but the visiting Atlanta Falcons are well-positioned to knock him down a peg.

Why Should I Start Jimmy Graham?

There is a perception that the Seahawks don’t use Graham enough in the red zone, but that isn’t true in 2017. He has 11 targets inside the opposing 10-yard line, which is the most in the league. The next most-targeted player in that area, Dez Bryant, has eight. He’s second in overall red zone targets (15), second in red zone receptions (11) and tied for first in red zone touchdowns (six). When the Seahawks get close to the end zone, they’re going to try to get Graham the ball.

Graham’s hot streak began in Week 3 against the Titans when he caught seven passes for 72 yards. Since then, he has at least 8.1 Dober points in every game. He surpassed his Week 11 projection (10.5) in five of seven contests, and that includes four of his last five. Travis Kelce is the only tight end to put up more Dober points than Graham since Seattle’s trip to Tennessee.

As a former member of the Saints, Graham has faced the Falcons many times over the years. He has a habit of putting up big numbers against them. In 10 career matchups, he surpassed 10.5 Dober points nine times. That includes his lone meeting as a Seahawk, when he caught six passes for 89 yards in Week 6 of 2016. It’s fair to say he has their number.

Why Should I Bench Jimmy Graham?

The Falcons are one of the toughest tight end matchups in the league. The only touchdown they’ve given up to the position went to the Jets’ Eric Tomlinson in Week 8. Tight ends average 49 yards per game against them and have surpassed 10.5 Dober points just once (Charles Clay in Week 4). That includes a matchup with Rob Gronkowski, who caught three passes for 51 yards.

Seattle’s newly acquired left tackle, Duane Brown, went down with an ankle injury in the Arizona game and didn’t return. It’s uncertain if he’ll play. This is noteworthy since Adrian Clayborn picked up six sacks against Dallas’ backup left tackle. He could absolutely do something like that against Matt Tobin, who would start in Brown’s place. The lack of Brown could send Seattle’s offense into a tailspin just like the lack of Tyron Smith helped doom the Cowboys. If that happens, it’s unlikely anyone on Seattle’s offense puts up decent numbers.

The best way to attack the Falcons this year has been on the ground. Atlanta gives up 4.3 yards per carry, which is 23^rd in the league. Seattle could try to get its struggling run game off the ground, limiting Graham’s opportunities.

Should I Make Jimmy Graham a Week 11 Fantasy Starter?

Yes. Graham’s red zone success along with his role in the offense barely supercede the tough matchup. The Seahawks are well rested and are playing a home prime-time game, which is a situation in which they have been known to excel. Stick with the hot hand for another week.

Week 11 Fantasy Prediction: Jimmy Graham Over 10.5 DFPs