Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Fantasy News

Should I Start Jameis Winston in Week 5?

by Derek Norton

10/3/17

NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston recovered from a disastrous Week 3 to lead the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a come-from-behind win over the New York Giants in Week 4. While things weren’t perfect for Winston and the Bucs offense, he managed one of the top fantasy quarterback performances of the week.

The Florida State product will have a chance to build on it Thursday night when the Bucs host the New England Patriots.

Why Should I Start Jameis Winston?

Everyone knows about Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, but Tampa showed last week that it has a few more weapons emerging. Cameron Brate had 80 yards and a touchdown, O.J. Howard had 63 yards and a score, and Adam Humphries caught six passes for 70 yards. On top of that, Doug Martin will return from his suspension. Tampa’s offense ought to be more dangerous than it’s been all year.

Winston has started two Thursday night games in his career and surpassed his Week 5 projection (18 Dober points) in both of them. He faced the Rams on the road in Week 15 of 2015 and threw for 363 yards with two touchdowns and two turnovers. He played the Falcons at home in Week 9 of 2016 and threw for 261 yards with three touchdowns, 11 rushing yards and a turnover. While some offenses implode on Thursdays, the Bucs haven’t done so on Winston’s watch.

After two straight weeks of passable defense from the Saints, the Patriots now field the worst defense in the NFL in almost every statistical category. They’re 32^nd in yards per game (456.8), passing yards per game (324) and passing touchdowns (11). They’re also 31^st in points per game (32).

The worst game a quarterback had against them belongs to Deshaun Watson, who threw for 301 yards with two touchdowns, two interceptions and 41 rushing yards. That’s 21.14 Dober points. So if the best the Patriots could do this year was 21.14 Dober points against a rookie quarterback making his second career start, it’s fair to say Winston has a very good chance of surpassing 18 Dober points.

Why Should I Bench Jameis Winston?

Though Winston’s numbers looked good against the Giants, there were some curious things going down on the field. First, Tampa center Ali Marpet had issues when Winston was in shotgun. More than a few plays were derailed due to bad snaps. Second, body language doctors and lip readers would not like what they saw from Tampa’s receivers on Sunday.

Winston had some accuracy problems, and he and his receivers often weren’t on the same page. This occasionally led to a dirty look and/or choice words being shot back at Winston. It looked like an offense that could self-destruct if things aren’t going its way, as was the case against Minnesota.

Another deceiving aspect of the statistics was how ridiculously easy the Giants made things for Winston early on. Howard was completely uncovered on his 58-yard touchdown reception, as was Cameron Brate on a 35-yard catch early in the second quarter. In other words, 10.72 of Winston’s 27.48 Dober points came as a result of completely busted coverages. It’s best to not count on that happening every week.

Though the Patriots defense is bad in most categories, they are average in one: takeaways. Their five forced turnovers are tied for 12^th in the league. Winston is averaging 1.08 turnovers per game in his career and has nine multi-interception games in 35 career starts. Winston has never faced the Patriots, and it’s possible Bill Belichick’s schemes will confuse Winston into an error-filled performance.

Should I Make Jameis Winston a Week 5 Fantasy Starter?

Yes. Pretty much all of the statistical trends point to it with the exception of how well the Patriots usually do after a loss. There’s always a chance New England wins in a blowout so the team can remind us not to take it lightly. But quarterbacks have been so incredibly successful against New England this year that it’s hard to go against Winston.

Week 5 Fantasy Prediction: Jameis Winston Over 18 DFPs