Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Fantasy News

Should I Start Mike Evans in Week 15?

by Derek Norton

12/16/17

NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans

Nothing has gone well for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season and, by extension, Mike Evans could very well end up having the worst campaign of his career.

The wide receiver is already on pace for a career-low 1,013 yards as well as the fewest receptions he’s ever had in a 16-game season.

Still, Evans is an extremely gifted receiver who can turn into a game-changer at any time. Unfortunately, most of the trends suggest you stay away from him in a home matchup with the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.

Why Should I Start Mike Evans?

Evans is getting an ample amount of targets. He’s tied for 13^th in the league with 107 (8.9 per game). He also leads the Bucs with 14 red zone targets and is tied for 12^th among wide receivers. Tampa is at least trying to get him involved even if the offense doesn’t have much to show for it.

This will be the Texas A&M product’s second career Monday night game. In the first, he caught six passes for 89 yards and a touchdown and surpassed his Week 15 projection (11 Dober points). No matter how bad things get, players usually give their best effort in national TV games. Maybe we’ll see a glimpse of the old Evans.

He also has a history of smashing the Falcons in home games. In three such meetings he’s averaging 7.6 receptions for 112 yards and 1.3 touchdowns. He surpassed his Week 15 projection and scored at least once in each contest. There are few scenarios in which Evans has been more successful.

Why Should I Bench Mike Evans?

Evans has been awful since Week 7. He’s barely among the top 40 wide receivers in Dober points over that stretch and didn’t exceed his projection once. He only surpassed his Week 15 projection (his lowest of the season) one time, and that was by 0.7 points. Some excuses have been made for him, like Darius Slay shutting him down last week. But Slay barely covered him. It’s difficult to trust Evans after such a prolonged streak of futility.

Though he has received plenty of red zone targets, his efficiency is abysmal. He has only caught three of his 14 targets (21 percent). That’s the second-lowest rate of any receiver with more than five targets inside the 20. Though, to his credit, all three receptions were touchdowns.

The Falcons are one of the toughest teams to throw against. They have the sixth-ranked pass defense and give up just 212 yards per game. They’re also fifth in yards per attempt (6.6). Only two receivers (Robby Anderson and Michael Thomas) have gone over 100 yards against them. Since Week 9, receivers have scored three times and only Thomas was able to exceed 11 Dober points. Count Evans among those under 11, as he scored 10.8 Dober points against them in Week 12.

Should I Make Mike Evans a Week 15 Fantasy Starter?

No. The Bucs are a mess while the Falcons have something to play for and will have had 11 days to rest and prepare after playing on Thursday night in Week 14. It won’t feel good betting against the talent, but the talent doesn’t matter without the production. There are too many reasons to avoid Evans this week.

Week 15 Fantasy Prediction: Mike Evans Under 11 DFPs