Tennessee Titans - Fantasy News

Should I Start Derrick Henry in Week 11?

by Derek Norton

11/16/17

NFL

Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry led the Tennessee Titans in rushing yards in Week 10, but it was DeMarco Murray who struck fantasy gold with three total touchdowns.

The Titans will go for their fifth straight win on Thursday Night Football in Pittsburgh and Henry should continue to be a large part of the game plan. But even if he gets plenty of touches, the Steelers are typically formidable opponents against the run.

Why Should I Start Derrick Henry?

Though Murray got all of the touchdowns on Sunday, it could have just as easily been Henry considering their similar usage in the red zone. Both have three carries inside their opponents’ five-yard line. Murray has eight carries inside the 10 to Henry’s eight, and Henry has 13 carries inside the 20 to Murray’s 12. So it’s not like the Titans have a clear preference in the red zone. Henry’s skill set would allow him to score the same kinds of touchdowns Murray did if he were on the field at the time. For all we know, he will be this week.

Henry entered the season as Murray’s backup, but that’s not really the case anymore. Since Week 6, Murray is averaging 16.5 touches per game compared to Henry’s 14. Combine that with Murray’s ongoing hamstring issues and Henry could take over at any time. The Oklahoma product might not be as effective with just four days to heal. Henry, who has led the Titans in rushing in four of nine games, could be the main back in this one.

Though the Steelers are good against the run, when they go down, they go down hard. Chicago’s Jordan Howard racked up 166 yards from scrimmage with two touchdowns against them in Week 3, while Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette had a career-high 184 yards and two scores against them in Week 5. Henry is perfectly capable of performing just as well.

Why Should I Bench Derrick Henry?

The Alabama product is rarely used as a receiver and therefore likely won’t benefit much from Dober’s half-PPR scoring. He had no receptions on three targets on Sunday and has just six receptions this season. He is averaging 0.8 catches per game for his career.

The website 4for4.com’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed metric (aFPA) has the Steelers as a bottom-10 matchup for running backs in both standard and PPR leagues. The rush defense has been especially strong lately. Frank Gore’s 54 yards on Sunday were the most a running back has put up against the Steelers since Fournette’s explosion in Week 5. Kareem Hunt, Joe Mixon, Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah combined for 117 yards on 31 carries (3.8 yards per carry). None of them scored a touchdown. This outcome is far more likely for Henry.

When Henry has gone against other teams in the bottom 10 of aFPA, he has not fared very well. He faced the worst matchup (Houston) and rushed six times for seven yards. He also faced Seattle (13 carries, 54 yards) and Miami (four carries, nine yards). The Browns are just outside of the bottom 10, but they held Henry to 13 yards on 13 carries. He did not go over his Week 11 projection (7.5) in any of them.  

Should I Make Derrick Henry a Week 11 Fantasy Starter?

No. The matchup is bad and could be even worse if Pittsburgh’s offense clicks at home as it often does. Without a receiving role, Henry would be completely erased if the Titans fall behind. He carries way too much risk to be worth using.

Week 11 Fantasy Prediction: Derrick Henry Under 7.5 DFPs