Arizona Cardinals - Fantasy News

Should I Start Carson Palmer in Week 1?

by Derek Norton

9/4/17

NFL

Arizona Cardinals

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer is back for a 15^th NFL season and is getting plenty of buzz considering he’s coming off of a down year. Granted, most of the buzz comes from his early-season schedule. But the Arizona Cardinals believe in Palmer, and they haven’t spent any high draft picks on quarterbacks that are going to push him. Well, unless Blaine Gabbert still counts.

Why I Should Start Carson Palmer

Palmer wasn’t that bad in 2016. It just seemed worse because he was an MVP candidate in 2015. He was ninth in passing yards (4,233) and tied for 10^th in touchdowns (26) even though he missed a game with a concussion. He averaged 16.1 Dober Fantasy Points per game.

Week 1 looks to be one of the rare instances when all of Palmer’s weapons are going to be healthy. Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson are usually around, but John Brown is only completely healthy once in a blue moon. His hamstrings and sickle-cell trait will probably be a concern at some point in 2017, but he’s fine for now. A full complement of weapons means a higher ceiling for Palmer.

He’s going to face a Detroit Lions team that was very generous to passing attacks in 2016. The 33 passing touchdowns they gave up were more than any team except Cleveland. They gave up the 14^th most passing yards (3,975), were in the bottom 10 in interceptions and finished in a tie for the second-fewest sacks.

It’s possible the Lions have improved on defense after spending a first-round pick on middle linebacker Jarrad Davis, a second-round pick on cornerback Teez Tabor and signing former Raiders cornerback D.J. Hayden. But even if they have improved, it’s difficult to imagine them turning into a tough unit overnight.

Palmer scored more than 14 Dober Fantasy Points in 10 of his 15 games last season. He came just shy of 14 Dober Points in three others. It is a total he routinely surpasses.

Why I Should Bench Carson Palmer

The end could come at any time for a soon-to-be 38-year-old quarterback. There have certainly been passers who have succeeded at that age, but Palmer throws in a true stinker here and there to make us wonder if he’s finally done. Look no further than his 2015 NFC Championship performance (when he was an MVP candidate) and last year’s zero-touchdown, four-interception effort in Buffalo. The Bills weren’t exactly ball hawks, either. They picked up a third of their interceptions that day.

Palmer has played against the Lions five times in his career and has been hit-or-miss. He had two three-touchdown games (2005 and 2015) and scored just once in the other three (2009, 2011 and 2013). He didn’t surpass 250 yards in two of those three contests and threw three interceptions. He only has one 300-yard game and failed to exceed 14 Dober Points twice.

He struggled on the road in 2016. Palmer completed 58 percent of his passes for 1,821 yards. He had 591 more passing yards at home, though the one game he missed was on the road. He threw 13 touchdowns both at home and on the road. However, he threw eight more interceptions on the road (11) and got sacked eight more times (24). Considering the numbers and the fact that crowds are a little more energetic on Opening Day, Palmer could have some trouble.

Should I Make Carson Palmer a Week 1 Fantasy Starter?

Yes. Not only does Palmer routinely surpass 14 Dober Points, but he does it against better defenses than the one he’s going to face on Sunday. If Palmer reached his per-game average from 2016, he’d throw for 282 yards with (roughly) two touchdowns and one interception. That’s 17.28 Dober Points for an average day. In a good matchup with all of his weapons, we should expect him to be better than average. It will be an upset if Palmer doesn’t go over.

Week 1 Fantasy Prediction: Carson Palmer Over 14 DFPs